In April JOLTs (the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released job openings and labor turnover survey report) job vacancies fell more than expected and other favorable factors, the US stock market resumed its rally after opening low overnight, as of the close of the three major stock indexes turned higher. In terms of individual stocks, Nvidia hit another record intraday high, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway closed down 2.17%, and most popular stocks were weaker.
Some industry institutions judge that the Federal Reserve may still open the interest rate cut cycle in the second half of 2024. On Friday, the latest non-farm payrolls numbers, even more critical than JOLTs job openings, will be released.
In terms of commodities, international precious metals and crude oil prices fell collectively. In the view of institutions, the market may continue to shake.
Berkshire shares fell nearly $100,000 a share
On June 4, local time, the three major stock indexes of the United States opened lower and higher. Data show that as of the close, the US Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500 index rose 0.36%, 0.17%, 0.15%.
In terms of individual stocks, shares of Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Company plunged, falling nearly 3% during the day, and fell to 2.17% by the end of the day, at $617,400 per share (about 4,469,900 yuan), down $13,700 from the previous day’s close. The total market value fell back to $347.3 billion (2.51 trillion yuan).
Chip stocks were mostly lower on Wall Street, with Supermicro Semiconductor down 2.18%, TSMC down 1.65%, ASML down 1.52% and Intel down 0.86%. However, Nvidia bucked the trend, rising 1.25% to $1,164.37 per share, and its total market value rose to $2.86 trillion, a record intraday high.
Most popular Chinese stocks traded in the U.S. fell, with the NASDAQ China Golden Dragon Index down 0.99 percent. Class standard technology fell 85.97%, Lotus Technology fell 9.99%, Atlas Solar fell 5.79%, Huya Live fell 4.35%; China concept new energy vehicle stocks were lower across the board, with NIO down 2.34%, Xiaopeng Automobile down 0.12% and Ideal Automobile down 1.96%.
In Europe, major indexes fell. Data showed that as of the close of trading, Britain’s FTSE 100 index, France’s CAC40 index and Germany’s DAX index fell 0.37%, 0.75% and 1.02%, respectively.
JOLTs job openings fell to their lowest level in more than three years in April, in line with a gradual slowdown in the labor market, which in part also raised market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, helping to push stocks higher.
The JOLTs report released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday local time shows that the number of job vacancies in the United States at the end of April was 8.059 million, which is not only significantly lower than the market expectation of 8.37 million, but also lower than the previous value of 8.355 million. The trend in the data suggests that the US Labour market is cooling.
Huatai Securities judged that the Federal Reserve may still open the interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year. In the base case, the Fed cuts interest rates once in the second half of the year; If the year-on-year growth rate of inflation remains below 3% for some time, and the number of new non-farm employment is close to 100,000 or even below 100,000, the possibility of two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year will rise.
From the follow-up economic data release arrangement, Beijing time on the evening of June 7, the latest heavy non-farm employment number will be released, and its changes are concerned by the Federal Reserve and the market. Some market participants expect non-farm payrolls to increase and the unemployment rate to remain unchanged.
Gold, silver and crude oil all fell
While the stock market strengthened, the commodity market fell, and the prices of precious metals and crude oil fell collectively.
Data show that as of 5:50 Beijing time on June 5, the COMEX gold futures price and London gold cash fell 0.97% and 1% respectively; Silver prices adjusted more significantly, COMEX silver futures and London silver fell 3.78% and 4.18%, respectively.
In terms of oil prices, as of 5:50 Beijing time on June 5, NYMEX crude oil and ICE crude oil futures main contracts fell more than 1%, and the session once hit a new low since 4 months. The drop in oil prices also drove U.S. energy stocks lower, with Exxon Mobil down 1.56%, Schlumberger down 1.5%, Conocophillips down 1.4% and Occidentals down 1.12% by the close.
Societe Generale Securities analysis believes that in the context of the short-term rebound in the fundamentals of the United States and the cooling of the short-term enthusiasm of the market, gold fell quickly after hitting a record high, and silver followed the high strength of non-ferrous metals and fell quickly. Looking ahead to the future price trend, the current non-commercial net long position of gold is still at a high level, while non-ferrous metals still have downward pressure in the short term, which may lead to a continued pullback in silver, and the fundamentals of the United States may rebound again in the short term, under the influence of multiple factors, gold may continue to be under pressure in the short term.
For international oil prices, GF futures judged that under the background of declining inflation in the United States and weakening of the US economy, macro pressure may still be large, which also has a certain drag on the demand side of crude oil. If the seasonal improvement in crude oil demand fails to hedge the macro pressure, the oil price center of gravity may continue to move lower; However, considering that the United States began to buy back the SPR after the oil price fell, and the OPEC+ production policy is still possible to adjust, the space below the oil price may be limited. If demand can drive the fundamentals to improve under the background of the peak season, oil prices can stop falling, and it is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the future market.
