Recently, the price of live pigs continued to rise. According to China feed industry information network news, the price of many pigs yesterday broke the 19 yuan/kg mark, and the average price of three yuan exceeded 18 yuan/kg. The breeding end is generally optimistic about the future market, and some institutions predict that the high point of pig prices in 2024 will not appear until July.
In addition, piglets have also become “hot goods.”
“Thanks to the completion of pig replenishment in early April this year, otherwise the breeding cost would have been too high.” Ma Zhangru, a pig farmer in Hanzhang Town, Nanle County, Henan province, told the Futures Daily reporter that the price of piglets of about 15 pounds when he made up the column was 450 yuan/head, and now it has risen to 720 yuan/head, up more than 50%.
Ma Zhanru said that the number of pigs has been added to 300, according to the current domestic pig output and the rising trend of pork prices to calculate that the end of this year’s pig prices will rise a lot, breeding profits are considerable.
“Pig prices rose sharply in the short term, coupled with corn, soybean meal, wheat prices continue to fall, and now many free-range farmers began to actively fill the column, but I have to wait.” Because the current price of piglets is too high, if the pig disease prevention and control is not good after the field, the survival rate is low, then even if the late pig market price is high, it will lose money. In addition, the previous two years to raise pigs, cattle losses are more, and now do not dare to boldly go to the field.” Liu Jianye, a pig farmer in Shuangmiao Township in Biyang County, Henan province, said his pig pen and cattle shed are still empty and he is considering whether to replace the pen.
Zhou Xin, a pig researcher at Zhongcai Futures, told reporters that since May, the domestic spot price of pigs has continued to rise, and the price of pigs has risen from 7.5 yuan/catty in early May to 9.25 yuan/catty, which is a relatively large increase in the short term.
“There are two main factors leading to the rise in pig prices: First, since the second half of last year, the number of breeding sows has declined continuously, making the current supply of pigs market gradually reduced, and the future supply is expected to be tight.” Second, in the process of continuous rebound in the price of live pigs, the profit of pig fattening and weight gain is highlighted, adding impetus to the second breeding and pressure of the breeding link. However, from the data released by relevant institutions, the current number of live pigs and post-slaughter weight are at a high level in recent years, which is expected to form a certain pressure on the number of live pigs in the third quarter, thereby suppressing the price of live pigs.” Zhou Xin said.
Gan Yuantian, a senior figure in the Hunan pig industry, said that recently, the Guangdong region’s “two miscellaneous” delivery price was 9.4 yuan/jin, and the “three miscellaneous” and “four miscellaneous” delivery price was 9.8 yuan/Jin, which showed a stable and rising operating trend. From the overall situation of the national pig market, the increase in the number of secondary fattening supplements in May exceeded market expectations, and the epidemic at the end of last year damaged the capacity of free-range farmers in the northern market, which further exacerbated the performance of the staged lack of pigs. At the same time, the national pig stock and the number of breeding sows have declined, and the current pig stock is at the lowest level since 2021, which means that the effect of early capacity removal is gradually emerging, and with the subsequent improvement of supply and seasonal pick-up in demand, pig prices are expected to continue to rise in the future.
“At present, after the average price of pigs in the country broke 9 yuan/catty, the market is also more and more optimistic about the price of pigs in the later period, the enthusiasm of the breeding link began to increase, and the price of piglets has gained a stronger upward momentum, such as the price of piglets of about 15 catty in the country exceeded 700 yuan/head.” Zhou Xin said that due to the large increase in pig prices, the domestic pig farming industry has finally got rid of the plight of industry-wide losses since mid-to-late May, and has turned into industry-wide profits. It is understood that the current profit of self-breeding pig in some production areas has exceeded 200 yuan/head. However, due to the large rise in the retail price of live pigs and pork, the price advantages of alternative products such as cattle, sheep, fish and poultry began to appear, the pig breeding industry is still facing a large risk of price fluctuations, farmers and breeding enterprises can timely use pig futures and options tools for risk management.
