Since falling from a record high of $2,454.2 per ounce in late May, the international gold price trend has been generally weak in recent days. However, on the night of June 5, precious metals prices as a whole rebounded.
CMX silver futures prices in the previous high platform of 29.5 US dollars/ounce to gain support, back to 30 US dollars/ounce, CMX gold futures prices rose sharply to nearly two weeks of shock platform high, the current price above 2380 US dollars/ounce, is expected to break through 2,400 US dollars/ounce.
On the news, the Bank of Italy announced a rate cut of 25bp, it is expected that the European Central Bank’s interest rate cut is imminent, weak US employment data, and the impact of other central banks’ interest rate cuts, the market expects the Federal Reserve to increase the probability of interest rate cuts in September.
Overnight, ADP employment data released on Wednesday showed that the US private employment increased by 152,000 in May, the smallest increase since February, significantly lower than the market’s previous estimate of 173,000, and April’s data was revised down from 192,000 to 188,000.
With data showing the U.S. labor market cooling and hawkish market expectations cooling, CME Group’s Fed Interest Rate Watch tool shows about a 70 percent chance that policymakers will cut rates in September. Both stocks and Treasuries extended their rally.
Mixed US economic data combined with slightly increased expectations of an interest rate cut contributed to a rally in precious metals prices yesterday evening and this morning.
The US ISM non-manufacturing index for May was released overnight, recording 53.8, significantly higher than market expectations of 51 and the previous value of 49.4, the largest increase in six months, including the business activity index the largest monthly increase since 2021, indicating that the US service economy is still resilient, and the financial market is less worried about the US recession.
In the short term, the United States has more economic data to show signs of turning point, the financial market in the face of weaker than expected data gradually believe that the United States short-term inventory cycle once again down the fact that the European Central Bank will hold an interest rate resolution meeting, the market is expected to cut interest rates, while the United States will release weekly unemployment applications, concerned about the disturbance to precious metals prices.
Guangzhou Futures suggested that this week focus on the European Central Bank’s interest rate resolution on Thursday and the performance of the US non-farm employment data on Friday, and overseas interest rate expectations will be revised based on the comprehensive performance of US employment.
At present, the overseas market is expected to cut interest rates again in advance, this week the European Central Bank or will start to cut interest rates, although the Federal Reserve has recently maintained a hawkish position, but it is still a greater probability event to start cutting interest rates within the year.
In the environment of falling interest rates, for zero interest assets silver as a whole, after the market correction or bring layout opportunities, short-term ideas suggest paying attention to unilateral long Shanghai silver opportunities.
Big futures analysis said that in the short term, whether the US economy can soft landing remains to be seen, the Federal Reserve hesitated to cut interest rates, or will continue to observe the performance of several periods of relevant data, in the short term, it is difficult for gold and silver prices to return to the upward trend, or continue to shock.
Affected by this news, non-ferrous metals also rose in the morning. As of press release, international copper and Shanghai copper both rose more than 1%
