In the tapestry of global demographics, an aging society is traditionally defined as one where the population aged 65 and above exceeds 7%. According to United Nations data, the world crossed the threshold into an aging society back in 2001. Addressing the challenges and harnessing the opportunities presented by global aging has since become a vital aspect of the world’s pursuit of stable and healthy economic development.
The aging narrative has unfolded asynchronously across nations over the past decades. European countries, at the forefront of modernization, encountered aging earliest, with France entering an aging society around 1860. Japan followed, stepping into an aging society in 1969, a deeply aging society with more than 14% of its population being elderly in 1994, and a super-aged society where the elderly exceed 21% in 2006, reaching a staggering 29.5% by 2022.
The pace of global aging is accelerating. A United Nations report indicates that in 1980, the elderly population numbered just 260 million; by 2021, this figure had more than doubled to 761 million; and by 2050, it is projected to burgeon to 1.6 billion individuals.
A noteworthy trend is the declining fertility rates across many nations, which are set to reduce the number of young people both now and in the future. This demographic shift means that the denominator of the global aging rate is increasing at a slower pace than the numerator, thereby accelerating the aging process globally. For instance, the global fertility rate has dropped from an average of 3.31 children per woman in 1990 to 2.25 children, with more than half of all countries falling below the replacement level of 2.1. Countries like Italy, South Korea, and Spain are experiencing ultra-low fertility rates, with an average of fewer than 1.4 children per woman. Forecasts suggest that by 2070, for the first time, the global population of those aged 65 and over will surpass the number of children under 18.
Population aging has shifted the supply and demand dynamics of the labor force and increased the societal burden of elderly care, exerting significant pressure on healthcare, the economy, and demographic structures. However, every coin has two sides. While population aging undeniably poses challenges to global economic development, it also presents a unique opportunity, as the burgeoning ‘silver’ demographic propels the rapid growth of the senior care market.
In the past, eldercare was predominantly a family affair. Yet, as material living standards have risen and work paces have quickened, there is an increasing pursuit of quality in both spiritual and physical aspects of life. Both the old and young generations now prefer independent living spaces, and the traditional extended family living arrangements are giving way to nuclear families. Consequently, the socialization and marketization of elderly care services are inevitable trends, with market demand growing steadily and rapidly.
Data from iMedia Research shows that in 2022, China’s elderly care industry reached a market size of 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. As China’s aging deepens, the future of related industries holds vast potential. Sectors such as retirement real estate, elderly care institutions, medical devices, nursing facilities, and smart aging technologies, as well as educational and entertainment industries for the elderly that incorporate social aspects like travel and sports, are poised to benefit.
Beyond the eldercare industry itself reaping the ‘silver’ dividend, the global financial markets are also bracing for new opportunities. Traditional consumption and lifestyle patterns may be reshaped to reflect the characteristics of an older population, with investment and financial domains that cater to the interests of the elderly expected to gain favor among this growing demographic.
